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GPT-6 released by…?

OpenAI Vol. $1,285,221 50 traders

December 31, 202685%
September 30, 202656%
August 31, 202622%
August 21, 20263%
$1,285,221 Vol. OpenAI

Outcomes

10
Chance
July 31, 2026 Resolved
1%
December 31, 2025 Resolved
1%
March 31, 2026 Resolved
1%
August 31, 2026
20%
August 7, 2026 Resolved
1%
August 14, 2026
1%
August 21, 2026
3% ▼ 2
June 30, 2026 Resolved
1%
December 31, 2026
77% ▼ 3
September 30, 2026
51% ▲ 6

Recent trades

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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