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Grok 4.6 released on...?

AI Vol. $1,329 50 traders

August 1442%
August 1741%
August 2141%
August 3141%
$1,329 Vol. AI

Outcomes

22
Chance
August 11 or earlier
1%
August 12
30%
August 13
30%
August 14
39%
August 15
36%
August 16
36%
August 17
38%
August 18
36%
August 19
30%
August 20
37%
August 21
38%
August 22
35%
August 23
32%
August 24
30%
August 25
37%
August 26
37%
August 27
36%
August 28
27%
August 29
32%
August 30
22%
August 31
37%
Not released by August 31
5%

Recent trades

  • No recent trades

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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